tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17028329069541323642024-03-12T21:28:06.190-06:00Surviving Peak Oil: Planning, Preparation, and RelocationThis forum provides practical information for individuals and organizations on how to prepare for the impacts of Peak Oil. Although several years will pass before oil depletion undermines vital systems, it is important to prepare for Peak Oil now, before inflation and economic depression limit the choices that individuals and organizations can make in planning to survive Peak Oil impacts. Guest posts are welcome via email.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.comBlogger116125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-29985384541531909632009-11-28T19:53:00.005-06:002009-11-28T20:29:18.690-06:00Peak Oil: "World Oil Production Forecast" by Tony Eriksen (Ace), posted on "The Oil Drum," November 23, 2009Tony Eriksen's "<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5979">World Oil Production Forecast</a>" represents the most accurate forecast of world oil production, as it is based on "an aggregation of individual forecasts from over 80 countries including over 300 major oil projects."See <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects">Wikepedia</a> for an explanation of this method.<br /><br />"World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart." [click on chart to enlarge]<br /><br /><a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20091119.png" target="NEW"><img src="http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20091119.png" width="80%" /></a><br /><br />(<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5979">CONTINUED HERE</a>)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Blog comment</span>: As noted on this blog <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/06/net-hubbert-curve-what-does-it-mean-by.html">previously</a>, Because oil is used to produce oil, we should focus on net oil production, which is what we have left after oil is consumed to extract, refine, and deliver oil products to market. The rate of decline in net oil production is much steeper than for all oil produced, as shown in Murphy's <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Net%20Hubbert_6.png">Figure 3</a>.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-740857461823720042009-09-26T05:17:00.004-05:002009-09-26T05:22:35.204-05:00"Peak Oil: Not enough oil for the G20 package," By Kjell Aleklett, Aleklett Energy Mix, Apil 3, 2009The world’s wealthiest nations, the G20 group, have decided to light a fire but have forgotten a very important detail – to check whether there is sufficient fuel to enable the fire to burn. Historically we have never had global economic growth without a simultaneous increase in the use of energy. This means, primarily, an increase in the use of fossil fuels. For a few nations – China, USA, Russia, India, Australia and South Africa – coal is a very important fuel. However, the most important fuel for the world economy is oil. All nations of the world use oil. <p>When the economies of different nations are compared, one usually compares their GDP(PPP), Gross Domestic Product (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita. If one furthermore compares how much oil nations use one can see that, since the Second World War, all nations have had to increase their oil use to get economic growth. If we compare how much oil is needed per 1000 dollar GDP (PPP) per person we get a suitable figure for comparison. The amount of oil different nations use varies. In 1980 Sweden, together with the USA, was the worst in the world since we needed the most oil. Nuclear energy and increased use of biofuels have helped us in Sweden to improve but we are still not as good as, for example, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.</p> <p><img src="http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/files/images/GDP%28PPP%29.preview.jpg" alt="" /></p> <p>During the last 20 years we have had global economic growth of approximately 3% per annum. Fuel use in the form of oil has increased, on average, by half of this rate, i.e. 1.5% per annum. In the future prognoses made by the International Energy Agency, IEA, they believe that we can increase our efficiency of fuel use but we will still need more oil. The documents that resulted from the G20 meeting assume that this fuel will exist to allow future global growth.</p> <p>To get an appreciation of the scale of the task we can examine the economic growth that the world experienced from 2003 until 2007. In 2003 oil consumption was 77 million barrels per day and in 2007 it was around 85 million barrels per day, i.e. an increase of 10 percent. At the moment consumption is around 84 million barrels per day. If the stimulus package that the G20 group decided on is to generate the same amount of growth as seen in the 2003 to 2007 period then we will need an increase of 8 to 9 million barrels per day during the next 5 years. Such an increase is not possible.</p> <p><img src="http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/files/images/Figure%201.preview.jpg" alt="" /></p> <p>The Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has just published an article in the scientific journal Energy Policy (<a href="http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/sv/publications/giant-oil-field-decline-rates-and-their-influence-on-world">see article</a>) in which we show that oil production from those fields that are currently in production will decrease by 6 percent per year during the next 5 years. This means a decrease in the rate of production by 18 million barrels per day after 5 years. The G20 nations want to increase oil use but the forces of Nature say that there will be a decrease. For the G20 nations to get what they want the world’s oil industry would need to bring online new production of 25 million barrels per day over the next 5 years. </p> <p><img src="http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/files/images/Figure%2013_0.preview.jpg" alt="" /></p> <p>The USA-based company CERA has studied all the projects that the oil industry currently plans to bring online in the coming years. Last summer they arrived at an optimistic estimate that saw 14 million barrels per day of new production. One week ago they revised this increase downwards by 7.6 million barrels per day since companies are now postponing projects.</p> <p>The same nations that now require increased oil consumption will meet in December with the world’s other nations in Copenhagen. They will then discuss what measures they can take to reduce oil consumption. They do not discuss what volumes of renewable energy will be needed but we have made an initial preliminary estimate and we find that 30 million barrels of oil per day must be replaced with renewable fuels and electricity by 2030 to keep a GDP(PPP) growth rate of 3 percent. What the G20 group should discuss is what investments will be required for this transformation of the energy system to become reality.<br /><br /><br /><i>Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics<br />Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, <a href="http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges" title="www.fysast.uu.se/ges">www.fysast.uu.se/ges</a><br />President of ASPO International, the International Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, <a href="http://www.peakoil.net/" title="www.peakoil.net">www.peakoil.net</a><br />Mobile: +70 425 0604<br />Email: <a href="mailto:kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se">kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se</a> </i></p> <div class="addnotetitle">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</div><div class="addnotebody">Original article <a href="http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/04/03/not-enough-oil-for-the-g20-package-oljan-racker-inte-till-g20-packetet/">available here</a></div>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-1696923187837128082009-09-08T05:38:00.007-05:002009-09-23T07:47:35.660-05:00"The Stonewalling of Peak Oil," By Dr. Robert Hirsch, ASPO-USA, September 7, 2009Dr. Robert L. Hirsch is the lead author of a seminal report, "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report">Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management</a>," written for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) and released in early 2005.<br /><br />"When the report was done, management at NETL really didn’t know what to do with it because it was so shocking and the implications were so significant. Finally, the NETL director decided that she would sign off on it because she was retiring and couldn’t be hurt, or so I was told. The report didn’t get widely publicized. It somehow was picked up by a high school someplace in California; eventually NETL put it on their website. The problem for people at NETL—and these are really good people—was that they were under a good deal of pressure to not be the bearers of bad news -- pressure from people in the hierarchy of the DOE. This was true in both Republican and Democratic administrations. There is, I think, ample evidence, and some people in DOE have gone so far as to say it specifically, that people in the hierarchy of DOE, under both administrations, understood that there was a problem and suppressed work in the area. Under President Bush, we were not only able to do the first study but also a follow-on study that looked at mitigation economics. After that, visibility apparently got so high that NETL was told to stop any further work on peak oil. <p>Yes, that was terrible. And it was strictly politics and political appointees—I have no idea how far up in either administration (the current one and previous one) these issues went or now go. People in the Clinton administration had talked about peak oil, including President Clinton and Vice President Gore, and the same thing is true in the Bush administration, and the same is true, to the best of my knowledge, in the Obama administration.</p> <p>The peak oil story is definitely a bad news story. There’s just no way to sugar-coat it, other than maybe to do what I’ve done on occasion and that is to say that by 2050 we’ll have it right and we will have come through the peak oil recession—quite probably a very deep recession. At some point we’ll come out of this because we’re human beings, and we just don’t give up. And I have faith in people ultimately. But it’s a bad news story and anybody’s who’s going to stand up and talk about the bad news story and is in a position of responsibility in the government needs to then follow immediately and say “here’s what we’re going to do about it,” and no one seems prepared to do that.</p> <p>Peak oil is a bigger issue than health care, than federal budget deficits, and so forth. We’re talking about something that, to take a middle of the road position—not the Armageddon extreme and not the la-la optimism of some people—is going to be extremely damaging to the U.S. and world economies for a very long period of time. There are no quick fixes."</p><p>(<a href="http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/09/interview-with-bob-hirsch-the-stonewalling-of-peak-oil/">VIEW FULL INTERVIEW</a>)<br /></p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Blog Comment: </span>Dr. Hirsch says that "there’s just no way to sugar-coat [Peak Oil]," but that is what he does. There is no plan or technology for replacing oil, nor is there time or capital to do so. After listening to his speeches, it is clear that his beliefs in America, technology, and the human will distort his scientific analysis. Denial is way of avoiding the horror of the <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/07/surviving-in-northeast-usa-after-last.html">reality ahead</a>.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-70690536140975637602009-09-08T05:15:00.003-05:002009-09-08T05:35:30.137-05:00"New Oil Discovery in the Gulf of Mexico," By Tom Whipple, ASPO-USA, September 7, 2009"Last week, the news was dominated by BP’s announcement on Wednesday that it had made a “giant” oil field discovery called Tiber, 35,000 feet beneath the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. BP did not announce the size of the find, but said it was comparable to other discoveries in the area, leading to press speculation that the Tiber find was on the order of 1-3 billion barrels. Initially the announcement that oil could be found so far below the surface was greeted with much enthusiasm with some stories suggesting that a new era of finding oil was at hand and that exploration in the Gulf would revive.<br /><br />Within a day reality set in as reporters learned that it was likely to take ten years of difficult and expensive drilling before any oil could be produced and even then less than a third of the oil, and possibly as little as 5 to 15 percent, can be recovered. Given that production from existing fields in the Gulf is likely to start declining rapidly in the next few years, oil from the deep water discoveries is unlikely to be sufficient to increase production from the Gulf.<br /><br />Production in the Gulf of Mexico accounts for about a quarter of total U.S. oil production, or about 1.2 million barrels a day. Gulf production peaked in 2003 at 1.56 million b/d. Most Gulf production wells tend to hit their peak within a year or two, and then begin to drop steeply several years later. Oil production in federal waters of the U.S. Gulf fell 9.8 percent last year, to the lowest since 1997, as new finds failed to keep pace with declining output from fields discovered in the 1970s and 1980s."<br /><br />(<a href="http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/newsletters/peak-oil-review/file-library/?dl_cat=3">VIEW FULL ARTICLE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-54308574043287476162009-09-07T16:14:00.004-05:002009-09-07T16:27:23.225-05:00"Simmons vs Yergin, Lynch et al on Peak Oil," By Kate Mackenzie, Financial Times, September 7, 2009Kate Makenzie at the <a href="Simmons%20vs%20Yergin,%20Lynch%20et%20al%20on%20Peak%20Oil">Financial Times</a> is trying to inform readers about Peak Oil. She counter poses William Simmons with Daniel Yergen, Michael Lynch, and Ed Morse. Readers are left with questions about who is right. Here is my my published comment :<br /><br />Global oil production peaked in 2008 and is now in terminal decline. The evidence is clear. During the period 2004 to 2008, as oil prices climbed, all oil producers were pumping at maximum effort with historically high oil prices. During this period, oil production remained flat, peaked a bit in July 2008 and then began to decline while oil prices were very high and before the October global economic collapse, as documented <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/top-story-of-year-global-oil-production.html">here</a>. And the depletion picture is far worse than Simmons indicated, as explained <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/06/net-hubbert-curve-what-does-it-mean-by.html">here</a>.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-88166026557269613312009-09-06T08:33:00.004-05:002009-09-06T08:46:10.925-05:00"What the IEA Doesn't Want You to Know About Peak Oil," By Lionel Badal, Seeking Alpha, September 6, 2009"It is not in the interest of some IEA member states, in particular its most powerful member, namely the USA<span>,</span> that the agency provides an honest assessment of the situation. Admitting Peak Oil is real also means that you acknowledge our current way of life is about to (radically) change. And not everyone wants the public to know that. Irresponsible, dishonest? Absolutely."<br /><br />(<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/160123-what-the-iea-doesn-t-want-you-to-know-about-peak-oil">VIEW FULL ARTICLE</a>)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Blog Comment: </span>Mr. Birol, Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency has misinformed the public by indicating that global oil production will peak in the in the long term future.<br /><br />The global oil production plateau from 2004 to 2008 is clear evidence of the peak. As oil prices climbed during this period, oil production leveled off. For more detail, see:<br /><br />http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/top-story-of-year-global-oil-production.html<br /><br />And the situation is more dire than Mr. Birol indicates:<br /><br />http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/06/net-hubbert-curve-what-does-it-mean-by.htmlClifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-33175308558398856502009-09-04T20:11:00.002-05:002009-09-04T20:17:49.692-05:00"Oil Spin: Ignore the Optimsts, Peak Oil is Real," By Matthew R. Simmons, Foreign Policy, Sepetmeber 4, 2009"Last week, four of the world's most outspoken oil aficionados waded into the controversy of peak oil, publishing articles packed with myth and distortion. This "Gang of Four" all claimed the issue was silly, moot, or simply a myth. The four pieces were Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin's <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/17/its_still_the_one" target="_blank">seven-page article</a> in <span class="fp_red">Foreign Policy</span>, energy analyst Michael Lynch's <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html" target="_blank">three column op-ed</a> in the <i>New York Times</i>, analyst Edward Morse's <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65226/edward-l-morse/low-and-behold" target="_blank">essay</a> in <i>Foreign Affairs</i>, and scholar Amy Jaffe's <a href="http://www.bakerinstitute.org/news/oil-futures" target="_blank">paper </a>published by the Baker Institute at Rice University.<br /><br />(<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/oil_spin">VIEW FULL ARTICLE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-54349165336693695012009-08-23T18:03:00.002-05:002009-08-23T20:01:48.911-05:00Peak Oil Impacts: "Millions face shrinking Social Security payments," By Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press, August 23, 2009"Millions of older people face shrinking Social Security checks next year, the first time in a generation that payments would not rise.<p>The trustees who oversee Social Security are projecting there won't be a cost of living adjustment (COLA) for the next two years. That hasn't happened since automatic increases were adopted in 1975."</p><p>(<a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iTrgrpJ1JxUsdwo-WbKS7wAGqBXwD9A8QG3G0">VIEW FULL ARTICLE HERE</a>)<br /></p>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-776605049817053182009-08-17T07:40:00.004-05:002009-08-17T08:48:41.088-05:00"Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell," Seeking Alpha, August 14, 2009"We have to send a tip of the hat, to ultra popular finance blogger at <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-weeks-insiders-transactions-1-buys-60-million-136-sells-over-115-billion">Zerohedge.com</a> for alerting us to the huge number of insiders who are selling off stock in their companies."<br /><br />(<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/156048-insiders-continue-to-sell-sell-sell">VIEW FULL ARTICLE</a>)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Blog Comment: </span>Many Wall Streeters know about Peak Oil. Neil King Jr. at "The Wall Street Journal" gave a <a href="http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/confirmedspeakers.cfm?bid=507">talk last year at the annual ASPO conference</a>. Two years ago I sent him my <a href="http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html">Peak Oil impacts report</a>. He wrote back and said he would read it. I wrote back and suggested that he forward the report to his editors, as it would make writing about Peak Oil easier for him. I have posted my Peak Oil impacts report in comments on financial blogs, including those at "The Wall Street Journal" and "Financial Times," and it has been posted on Engerybulletin.net. Bart Anderson at Engergybulletin.net informed me that <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47970">this article</a> on Peak Oil and the economy had 3,783 unique page views. <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48275">Another article on Peak Oil and the economy</a> was likely as popular and has been posed on many blogs. We can conclude that many insiders know about Peak Oil.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-80152407358766167192009-08-03T07:52:00.003-05:002009-08-05T22:43:03.611-05:00"Obama says many months before U.S. exits recession," Reuters, August 1, 2009"President <a href="http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/barackobama" title="Full coverage of President Barack Obama">Barack Obama</a> warned on Saturday it would take "many more months" for the United States to get out of recession even after GDP figures showed the economy shrank only modestly in the second quarter."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5700R620090801">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-72347419030642966542009-08-02T19:42:00.033-05:002009-08-06T08:01:45.271-05:00"The Indendent" (London) Warns about Peak Oil<h3 style="font-weight: normal;" class="UIIntentionalStory_Message"><span style="font-size:100%;"></span></h3><span style="font-size:100%;">Peak Oil is now, not a decade away as "<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html">The Independent</a>" indicates. According to most independent sources, <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/top-story-of-year-global-oil-production.html">global oil production peaked in 2008</a>. "The Independent" relies on the optimistic IEA for forecasts. But the IEA is NOT an independent agency, as it tends to speaks for global oil and industrial interests. But the IEA indicates that "the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010."<br /><br />What are your local, state, and federal governments planning for? Chief Economist Fatih Birol at the International Energy Agency warns that “many governments appeared oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted...” Birol sees a supply crunch within the next few years that will jeopardize hopes of an economic recovery.<br /><br />The IEA is one reason that governments are oblivious. The IEA has been downplaying Peak Oil for years, and still is in saying that Peak Oil is 10 years away.<br /><br /><a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/top-story-of-year-global-oil-production.html">Global oil production peaked in 2008</a> and depletion is <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/06/net-hubbert-curve-what-does-it-mean-by.html">steeper</a> than the "The Independent" indicates.</span>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-41936989445529818362009-07-26T11:30:00.004-05:002009-07-26T22:20:19.190-05:00"20 Ways to Waste Your Money," By Erin Burt, Kiplinger. com, July 23, 2009<p>"Whether a newbie or seasoned budgeter, nearly everyone has spending holes -- leaks in your budget that drain money with you hardly noticing.</p><p>These small drips can add up to big bucks. Once you find the holes and plug them, you'll keep more money in your pocket. That spare cash could be the ticket to finally being able to save, invest, or break your cycle of living paycheck to paycheck.</p><p>Here are 20 common ways people waste money. See if any of these sound familiar, and then look for ways to plug your own leaks."</p><p><br /></p>(CONTINUED <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/107388/20-ways-to-waste-your-money.html?mod=banking-budgeting">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-40258097766443114132009-07-23T09:35:00.003-05:002009-07-23T09:40:46.154-05:00"Root Cellaring 101," By A Reader of Theoildrum.com, July 23, 2009<div class="content"> <center><br /><img src="http://www.bse.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_6_2_23570_2600_360038_43/http%3B/pubcontent.state.pa.us/publishedcontent/publish/cop_environment/phmc/communities/extranet/history/aghistproj/outbuildings/rootcellarucontent/root3.jpg" /><br /></center><br /> </div><!-- close content div --> <!-- close summary div --> <a name="more"></a> I have read with interest your Campfire posts pertaining to discussions of acquiring practical skills and techniques particularly focused on food production, preservation and storage. Perhaps this would be an appropriate forum to gain feedback from some of your readers on a few ideas I have for the construction of a root cellar. Below is a picture of the spot I have chosen in which to build this. The soil is heavy clay, slope faces northeast and ‘elevation gain’ is approximately 6 feet. My dog marks the spot where I intend on building a root cellar.<br /><center><br /><img src="http://www.theoildrum.com/files/root_02.jpg" width="60%" /><br />Site for root cellar - vertical drop of 6-7 feet. (German Shepherd shown for scale)</center><br /><center><br /><img src="http://www.theoildrum.com/files/root_4.jpg" width="60%" /><br />Photoshop 'cube' intended place for root cellar, placed back in hillside - roughly 6x8x8 </center><br />After looking at many designs online, and having one bid ($6000) for a cinderblock constructed cellar, I am thinking an easier and possibly cheaper alternative might be to use 8 ft bunker silo sections. See link attached. <a href="http://www.hansonsilo.com/precast.php" title="http://www.hansonsilo.com/precast.php">http://www.hansonsilo.com/precast.php</a> These precast sections of concrete come in various sizes but I’m considering 6’(H) x 8’(L) for an 8x8 root cellar. Other options I’m considering are poured concrete (pricey no doubt), another old farmer told me ‘in the old days’ they would dig out a cave and line the wall with a thin layer of cement. Additional ideas are greatly appreciated; especially those that cost less and/or are simple enough that I can assist in the construction.<br /><center><br /><img src="http://www.bse.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_6_2_23570_2600_360038_43/http%3B/pubcontent.state.pa.us/publishedcontent/publish/cop_environment/phmc/communities/extranet/history/aghistproj/outbuildings/rootcellarucontent/root3.jpg" /><br /></center><br />Something like the above would be grand, but likely undoable without premium labor. I'm willing to spend in the $4,000-$6,000 range for a quality permanent cellar and will add my own labor/time to the effort (and possibly my internet addicted boyfriend)<p><br />I am also curious to know how many of these skills related to basic needs (e.g. food storage) are still around or if two+ generations of oil/electricity have erased them culturally -even the Amish workers near me didn't know what to make of my cellar request.)<br /></p> Thanks in advance,<br />MNB<br /><br />(FULL ARTICLE AND COMMENTS <a href="http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5596#more">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-40866282710646328782009-07-23T08:02:00.001-05:002009-07-23T08:07:46.074-05:00"Some Unemployed are Giving Up," By Liz Wolgemuth, U.S. News & World Report, July 22, 2009"In some U.S. states, nearly half of the <a id="KonaLink0" target="undefined" class="kLink" style="text-decoration: underline ! important; position: static;" href="http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/careers/2009/07/22/states-where-the-unemployed-are-giving-up.html#"><span style="color: rgb(0, 84, 151) ! important; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px; position: static;color:#005497;" ><span class="kLink" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(0, 84, 151); color: rgb(0, 84, 151) ! important; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px; position: static; background-color: transparent;">job</span></span><span style="position: relative;" id="preLoadWrap0"><div style="position: absolute; z-index: 4000; top: -32px; left: -18px; display: none;" id="preLoadLayer0"><img style="border: 0px none ;" src="http://konac.kontera.com/javascript/lib/imgs/grey_loader.gif" /></div></span></a> seekers who have stopped looking for work have done so because they simply don't believe they'll find anything. Indeed, the number of discouraged workers nationwide has more than doubled in the past year. This trend won't be reflected in the widely publicized unemployment rate, as discouraged workers aren't included among the unemployed. Still, in states as diverse as Mississippi, South Dakota, and New York, the span of this often invisible slice of workers signals a population losing its hope."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/careers/2009/07/22/states-where-the-unemployed-are-giving-up.html">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-7804766860434090352009-07-20T09:14:00.006-05:002009-08-06T14:48:30.479-05:00Cliff's Tips on Prescription Medicines, Diagnoses, and TreatmentPrescription medicines are usually expensive in the developed countries. In addition, getting the prescription normally requires an appointment with the doctor.<br /><br />I have found that with the information available on the Internet and mail ordering medications from <a href="http://www.unitedpharmacies.com/">United Pharmacies</a> -- http://www.unitedpharmacies.com/ -- I can usually save money and time. United Pharmacies does not require a prescription and their medications are of excellent quality. I have always found United Pharmacies to be honest and efficient. And if I need to go to the doctor, I come prepared with symptoms, diagnoses, and prospective medications and treatments.<br /><br />The most authoritative source for diagnoses and treatments is <a href="http://www.nih.gov/">National Institutes of Health</a>. The site<a href="http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/"> Wrong Diagnosis</a> is excellent, and there are many others such as <a href="http://www.mayoclinic.com/">Mayo Clinic</a>. For depression, anxiety, panics, nervousness, see <a href="http://www.crazymeds.us/">Crazy Meds</a> and <a href="http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/topics/index.shtml">National Institute of Mental Health</a>. See also the sources on the side bar right of this blog.Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-29543388944507755162009-07-18T12:11:00.004-05:002009-07-19T20:21:25.637-05:00"Peak Oil: Myth or Reality -- A List of Countries Past Peak," By Praveen Ghanta, Theoildrum.com, July 18, 2009<p> <strong>Only 14 of the 54 oil producing nations in the world are still increasing their oil production. The era of cheap oil is definitively over, as shown below. Posted on Theoildrum.com with discussion <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576">HERE</a>.<br /></strong></p><p> Is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil">peak oil</a> real? The <a href="http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622">BP Statistical Review of World Energy</a> provides the data needed to answer this question. Using the <a href="http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622">2009 edition</a>, I have compiled a list of all oil producing countries and regions in the world, along with the production status of each, ordered by year of peak production. BP groups minor producers into categories like "Other Africa", and "Other Middle East", and that notation is used here. All production numbers are quoted in barrels/day.</p><p> </p><!-- close content div --> <!-- close summary div --> <a name="more"></a> <table width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Country</th> <th>Peak Prod.</th> <th>2008 Prod.</th> <th>% Off Peak</th> <th>Peak Year</th> </tr> <tr> <td>United States</td> <td>11297</td> <td>7337</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-35%</span></td> <td>1970</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Venezuela</td> <td>3754</td> <td>2566</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-32%</span></td> <td>1970</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Libya</td> <td>3357</td> <td>1846</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-45%</span></td> <td>1970</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other Middle East</td> <td>79</td> <td>33</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-58%</span></td> <td>1970</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kuwait</td> <td>3339</td> <td>2784</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-17%</span></td> <td>1972</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iran</td> <td>6060</td> <td>4325</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-29%</span></td> <td>1974</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indonesia</td> <td>1685</td> <td>1004</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-41%</span></td> <td>1977</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Romania</td> <td>313</td> <td>99</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-68%</span></td> <td>1977</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Trinidad & Tobago</td> <td>230</td> <td>149</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-35%</span></td> <td>1978</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iraq</td> <td>3489</td> <td>2423</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-31%</span></td> <td>1979</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brunei</td> <td>261</td> <td>175</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-33%</span></td> <td>1979</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tunisia</td> <td>118</td> <td>89</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-25%</span></td> <td>1980</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Peru</td> <td>196</td> <td>120</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-39%</span></td> <td>1982</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Cameroon</td> <td>181</td> <td>84</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-54%</span></td> <td>1985</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other Europe & Eurasia</td> <td>762</td> <td>427</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-44%</span></td> <td>1986</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Russian Federation</td> <td>11484</td> <td>9886</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-14%</span></td> <td>1987<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Egypt</td> <td>941</td> <td>722</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-23%</span></td> <td>1993</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other Asia Pacific</td> <td>276</td> <td>237</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-14%</span></td> <td>1993</td> </tr> <tr> <td>India</td> <td>774</td> <td>766</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-1%</span></td> <td>1995<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syria</td> <td>596</td> <td>398</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-33%</span></td> <td>1995</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gabon</td> <td>365</td> <td>235</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-36%</span></td> <td>1996</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Argentina</td> <td>890</td> <td>682</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-23%</span></td> <td>1998</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colombia</td> <td>838</td> <td>618</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-26%</span></td> <td>1999</td> </tr> <tr> <td>United Kingdom</td> <td>2909</td> <td>1544</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-47%</span></td> <td>1999</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville)</td> <td>266</td> <td>249</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-6%</span></td> <td>1999<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Uzbekistan</td> <td>191</td> <td>111</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-42%</span></td> <td>1999</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Australia</td> <td>809</td> <td>556</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-31%</span></td> <td>2000</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Norway</td> <td>3418</td> <td>2455</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-28%</span></td> <td>2001</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oman</td> <td>961</td> <td>728</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-24%</span></td> <td>2001</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Yemen</td> <td>457</td> <td>305</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-33%</span></td> <td>2002</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other S. & Cent. America</td> <td>153</td> <td>138</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-10%</span></td> <td>2003<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mexico</td> <td>3824</td> <td>3157</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-17%</span></td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Malaysia</td> <td>793</td> <td>754</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-5%</span></td> <td>2004<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vietnam</td> <td>427</td> <td>317</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-26%</span></td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Denmark</td> <td>390</td> <td>287</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-26%</span></td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other Africa</td> <td>75</td> <td>54</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-28%</span></td> <td>2004<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nigeria</td> <td>2580</td> <td>2170</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-16%</span></td> <td>2005<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chad</td> <td>173</td> <td>127</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-27%</span></td> <td>2005<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>127</td> <td>108</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-15%</span></td> <td>2005<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ecuador</td> <td>545</td> <td>514</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-6%</span></td> <td>2006<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#linkstar">*</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Saudi Arabia</td> <td>11114</td> <td>10846</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-2%</span></td> <td>2005 / Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Canada</td> <td>3320</td> <td>3238</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-2%</span></td> <td>2007 / Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Algeria</td> <td>2016</td> <td>1993</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-1%</span></td> <td>2007 / Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Equatorial Guinea</td> <td>368</td> <td>361</td> <td><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-2%</span></td> <td>2007 / Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>China</td> <td>3795</td> <td>3795</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>United Arab Emirates</td> <td>2980</td> <td>2980</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brazil</td> <td>1899</td> <td>1899</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Angola</td> <td>1875</td> <td>1875</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kazakhstan</td> <td>1554</td> <td>1554</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Qatar</td> <td>1378</td> <td>1378</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Azerbaijan</td> <td>914</td> <td>914</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sudan</td> <td>480</td> <td>480</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thailand</td> <td>325</td> <td>325</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Turkmenistan</td> <td>205</td> <td>205</td> <td>-</td> <td>Growing</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Peaked / Flat Countries Total</strong></td> <td>-</td> <td>49597</td> <td>-</td> <td><strong>60.6% of world oil production</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Growing Countries Total</strong></td> <td>-</td> <td>32223</td> <td>-</td> <td><strong>39.4% of world oil production</strong></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their production peak, and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#link1">[1]</a>. Put another way, peak oil is real in 61% of the oil producing world when weighted by production. Since 2008 capped a record run for oil prices, most countries and oil companies were trying all-out to increase production. While a handful of producers (think Iraq) might be limited by above-ground factors, the majority of producers simply couldn't do any better in 2008 <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576#link2">[2]</a>.<p> The evidence of the demise of the cheap oil era has become insurmountable. In the face of the highest oil prices on record, the great majority of the world's oil producers were incapable of taking advantage and producing more oil. Many nations including the US saw their oil production peak decades ago - there simply is no turning the clock back. This list shows that we are relying on a small number of countries to keep providing cheap oil. We need to move faster to alternatives and greater energy efficiency, before the last fourteen peak as well.</p><p> <a id="linkstar">*</a> More information on these countries:</p><p> </p><ul><li>Russian Federation - Russia's oil production collapsed by the early 90's as the Soviet Union collapsed, but despite a decade of growth, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/04/15/peak-oil-da-say-russian-oil-execs/">Russia's own oil execs</a> don't think the old peak can be surpassed.</li><li>India's production appeared to plateau in 1995, and has stayed within a steady range since. The <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/India/Oil.html">EIA forecasts</a> Indian oil production to remain flat or decline slightly in the near future.</li><li>Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) hit a production plateau in 1998, though current production is still very close to 1999 peak levels.</li><li>Other Central & South America - The remaining countries of the Americas hit a production peak in 2003, though it's still too soon to know if this will be final peak.</li><li>Malaysia has been on a production plateau since 1995, and the <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Malaysia/Full.html">EIA projects</a> flat or falling production.</li><li>Other Africa - Oil production in much of Africa is potentially impacted by above-ground constraints, so it's definitely possible that production will rise here. It will rise from a low base of only 50,000 bpd however, and may not have much impact on total world production.</li><li>Nigeria is impacted by domestic insurgencies in its oil-producing regions, and may be able to lift production if the political situation improves.</li><li>Chad's oil production history is too short to definitively identify a peak in production, but the drop-off since 2005 has been dramatic.</li><li>Italy has been on a production plateau for over 10 years, and it's unlikely that a mature economy is significantly under-exploiting its resource potential.</li><li>Ecuador's production grew rapidly until 2004, but has leveled off and declined somewhat since then.</li></ul><p> <a id="link1">[1]</a> To be considered past-peak, a producer's current (2008) production has to be at least 10% less than its best year, and the best year must have occurred prior to 2005. Some countries' production has been artificially constrained by political and other non-geological considerations. But in some of these cases, it will be difficult to pass an old peak because decades of depletion have occurred since that peak. Iraq peaked in 1979, making it all the more difficult to pass that now.</p><p> <a id="link2">[2]</a> While OPEC maintains formal production quotas, it is widely believed that only Saudi Arabia had true spare capacity in 2008, while all other OPEC nations were producing at capacity. The truth is unclear, since OPEC nations do not provide detailed reserve statistics for their oil fields.</p><p> Total has created its own short <a href="http://www.planete-energies.com/content/oil-gas/companies/world/consumption-oil-production-statistics.html">list of oil producers past peak</a>, and Wikipedia has a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Peak_oil_for_individual_nations">list here</a>.</p>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-43164798296741233642009-07-16T21:34:00.003-05:002009-07-16T21:42:04.384-05:00" Twenty Dollars Per Gallon: How the rising price of oil will change our lives.," By Christopher Steiner, Forbes.com, July 16, 2009"We sit in a period that's popularly (and appropriately) known as "<a style="border-bottom: 1px dotted; color: rgb(0, 51, 153); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal;" href="http://topics.forbes.com/peak%20oil" rel="nofollow">peak oil</a>," meaning that global production of crude is at a zenith that will never again be realized."<br /><br />"Middle-class life runs on oil. So we should pay rapt attention to things that could cause the price of oil to increase. As the price increases, our lives will indelibly change--and there are plenty of reasons to think that the price of oil will, in the long term, steadily increase."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/14/20-dollar-gallon-business-energy-oil.html">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-63573484082173368832009-07-16T07:18:00.007-05:002009-07-16T07:45:32.713-05:00"Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better," By Mortimer B. Zuckerman, US New & World Report, July 15, 2009<p>"We are now looking at unemployment numbers that undermine any confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The appropriate metaphor is not the green shoots of new growth. A better image is to look at the true total of jobless people as a prudent navigator looks at an iceberg.</p> <!--- Insert the sidebar information --> <div id="y-article-related" class="mod-group"> </div> <!-- Article Related Media --> <p>What we see on the surface is disconcerting enough. The estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of job losses for June is 467,000. That increases by 7.2 million the number of unemployed since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the past six months have been greater than for any other half-year period since World War II, including demobilization. What's more, the job losses are now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all employment growth from the previous business cycle.</p>Next year, state budgets will have depleted their initial rescue dollars. Absent another rescue plan, they will have no choice but to slash spending or raise taxes, or both. The complete state and local government sector, which makes up about 15 percent of the economy, is beginning the worst contraction in postwar history in the face of a deficit gap of $166 billion for fiscal year 2010, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and a cumulative gap of $350 billion in fiscal year 2011.<br /><p>That's bad enough. But here are nine reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5 percent unemployment rate indicates."</p><p>(CONTINUED <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nine-Reasons-the-Economy-is-usnews-1021116601.html?x=0&.v=1">HERE</a>)</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Blog Comment: </span>Peak Oil is the reason for continued economic malaise. Eventually state and local governments will lack the resources to maintain the highways -- which support maintenance for the power grid. Federal assistance to states will decline as federal revenues decline. Some 70% of federal revenues come from income taxes. Read more <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/top-story-of-year-global-oil-production.html">HERE</a> and <a href="http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/03/peak-oil-economic-depression-has.html">HERE</a>.<br /></p>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-36751053910341223452009-07-15T19:49:00.004-05:002009-07-15T20:02:55.653-05:00"Hundreds of Thousands of Workers Will Lose Unemployment Benefits Soon," By Marie Coco, Washington Post Writer's Group, July 10, 2009"When a virulent disease is ravaging you like a cancer, you don't want a cacophony of voices promoting different or contradictory cures. Yet that is what we're starting to hear about the economic crisis, not only from a politically divided -- and pretty scared -- capital, but from within the Obama administration itself. In just the past few days, Vice President Joe Biden has said the young administration misread the depth of the recession -- an honest account, since most private economists did as well. Laura Tyson, an outside economic adviser to the White House, said it's wise to start preparing another stimulus package."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.alternet.org/workplace/141190/hundreds_of_thousands_of_workers_will_lose_unemployment_benefits_soon/">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-73042315771336023752009-07-15T19:40:00.004-05:002009-07-15T20:03:16.528-05:00"The State of Homelessness in the U.S.," By M.J. Stephey, TimeCNN, July 13, 2009"There are few economic indicators as grim as homelessness, as the Department of Department of Housing and Urban Development demonstrates in its 4th annual report on the topic, which found that some 1.6 million Americans stayed at homeless shelters from October 2007 to September 2008. The Department also noticed some troubling trends: more families seeking shelter — particularly in rural and suburban areas — and more people going to shelters from stable living arrangements (instead of jails, institutional settings or the military)."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1910070,00.html">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-50829512666082342162009-07-13T21:28:00.003-05:002009-07-13T21:36:38.839-05:00"Three Plans for Fuel Emergencies in the UK," By Rick Munroe, Energy Bulletin, July 13, 2009<div class="content"> <p>(FULL TEXT BELOW, ORIGINAL ARTICLE IS<a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49547"> HERE</a>)<br /></p><p>Three plans for fuel emergencies have recently been released by UK public sector agencies. This review compares the three plans, highlights certain points from each, and provides internet links to the documents.</p> <p><b>DECC's Business Continuity Management for Fuel Shortages (Nov. 08)</b></p> <p>Although DECC is now the lead ministry during fuel emergencies, their document is the shortest (10 pages) of the three plans and overlooks some fundamental information which is contained in the other two.</p> <p>DECC warns that local fuel supplies "could be exhausted within 48 hours of an [extreme] incident and it could take up to 10 days before stock levels are fully restored" (p.2).</p> <p>DECC's Maximum Purchasing Scheme would limit purchase for non-essential users (ie. the general public) to a maximum of 15 litres (roughly 3 gallons) per purchase.</p> <p>This appears to be an impractical strategy for two reasons:<br /></p> <ol><li>History: In USA during the 1979 crisis they limited purchases to a $5 maximum, a similar volume. As Daniel Yergin states, "The results were exactly the opposite of what was intended, for it meant that motorists had to come back to gas stations that much more frequently" (The Prize, p. 692).</li><li>Common sense: Citizens who are worried about their fuel supply will continually be tempted to top up their tanks. Topping-up creates line-ups which waste time & fuel and increase tensions at the pumps. As Yergin further points out, “One estimate suggested that America’s motorists in the spring and summer of 1979 may have wasted 150,000 barrels of oil waiting in line to fill their tanks!” (The Prize, p. 692).</li></ol> <p>Other analysts have recommended a fixed limit, say 30 litres (no more and no less) as a way of preventing topping-up.</p> <p>In Annex A, this document refers to the Designated Filling Stations (DFS) which “would provide priority access to road transport fuels for defined customers requiring them for a priority use” (p. 7). Curiously, there is no mention of the fact that over 650 of these DFS sites have already been identified (a fact which is mentioned in the two NHS documents which follow).</p> <p>Having a number of pre-identified sites which will be restricted to defined priority users is prudent planning.</p> <p>Here is the link:</p> <p><a href="http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/132628/bcp_fuel_nov2008.pdf">Business Continuity Management for Fuel Shortages</a></p> <p><b>NHS Guidance on Planning for Disruption to Road Fuel Supply (Oct. 08)</b></p> <p>At 30 pages, this is the longest of the three documents.</p> <p>It contains several interesting observations:</p> <ul><li>In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, health facilities had power and their lights acted as a beacon (literally) for displaced citizens, and this created some security issues for those facilities.</li><li>The "Myth of a Central Fuel List" (p. 14) indicates how seriously businesses view their fuel supply and gives a hint of the efforts that people will go to in order to gain preferential access/Essential User status.</li><li>This document has several warnings not to underestimate the complexities of a fuel shortage.</li><li>The recommendation to "attempt to have all workers try public transport options" (p. 14) of course makes sense, but as US fuel emergency analyst Kathy Leotta (2007) points out, "Transit systems have only limited capabilities for quickly increasing services... due to a small supply of extra vehicles and drivers" (Leotta, p. 4).<br />Switching to public transit will be easier said than done.</li><li>Other than its request to ensure that "all unforecasted costs... are captured for audit" (p. 17) there is little acknowledgment of the budgetary concerns which could quickly arise. It seems highly unlikely that any free-market economy could have an extended fuel supply problem without also having an extended price spike.</li><li>This document provides a preview of the time and energy which must be devoted to the bureaucratic tasks of identifying, approving, informing, prioritizing, documenting and reviewing. How personnel can reasonably cope with the additional bureaucratic burden (on top of the other practical difficulties caused by a fuel emergency) should be of great concern.</li></ul> <p>Here is the link:</p> <p><a href="http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_089955">NHS Guidance on Planning for Disruption to Road Fuel Supply</a></p> <p><b>Heart of Birmingham NHS Fuel Shortage Plan (reviewed June 27/09)</b></p> <p>This 21-page plan offers a more detailed look at the complexities of managing the Temporary Logo Scheme (p. 4-5), issues around communicating info to the public (p. 6), concerns about supply chain failures, etc.</p> <p>Returning to the topic of budgetary problems arising during a fuel emergency, it is puzzling to see no warnings in any of these three documents that pricing during a fuel emergency could prove problematic to their budgets and/or to the service delivery capability of their agencies.<br /><br />In the Birmingham document, the topic of Financial Implications (Sect. 12.0) is raised, but this section contains only one unfathomable sentence: "There are no significant financial implications anticipated in the implementation of this plan" (p. 13).</p> <p>Similarly, Sect. 10.0 on Training states: "There are no specific training requirements associated with this plan" (p. 13).</p> <p>Both NHS documents contain some specific and sensible recommendations for personnel, for delivery of services, accountability re fuel use, etc. One would think that this would surely require detailed consultation with staff (and subsequent training) in order to implement these recommendations.</p> <p>Here is the link:</p> <p><a href="http://www.bpcssa.nhs.uk/policies/_hob%5Cpolicies%5C881.pdf">Heart of Birmingham Teaching Primary Care Trust Fuel Shortage Plan</a></p> <p><b>Some final comments</b></p> <p>To their credit, UK planners have highlighted two central facts:</p> <ol><li>a fuel emergency can be extremely difficult to administer, and </li><li>fuel supply and other emergencies must be addressed primarily at the local level, hence the need for local plans, pre-authorization & empowerment, etc.</li></ol> <p>In North America, meanwhile, there seems to be no comparable activity to raise the profile of fuel emergencies nor to lay preparatory ground-work at the local level.</p> <p>However, even the UK planners may be placing insufficient emphasis on the ability of a sustained price spike (potentially coupled by a surge in demand for service) to seriously constrain budgets and the provision of essential services.</p> <p>These three documents offer a preview of a way of life which most citizens have thankfully never experienced: a society where fuel has suddenly become very expensive, where physical supplies of fuel and food may be restricted, where public services are curtailed, and where the overall economy and the public tax base hang in the balance.</p> <p>The complexities of managing such an unprecedented situation are enormous.</p> </div>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-72325212000044419362009-07-12T08:59:00.003-05:002009-07-12T09:09:08.962-05:00"Economic Fragility Underestimated - Collapse May Be Imminent ," By Arbitrary Vote, Seeking Alpha, July 2, 2009"<span>The mainstream media and government are communicating that the economy is on a positive track toward recovery while downplaying the likelihood of another economic catastrophe similar or worse than that experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009. In actuality, there is a significant chance that the U.S. will experience a severe economic collapse, beyond what has already been experienced, either this year or within the next few years. If there is a perceived, sustainable economic rebound before this happens, do not be fooled - the underlying economic problems still exist and will likely eventually surface in economic collapse.</span><p> </p><p>This following analysis further explores this warning by describing:</p><ol><li>The 4 key reasons an economic collapse is likely imminent</li><li>Why these 4 reasons make the economy vulnerable</li><li>Warning signs and triggers to monitor to foresee a collapse before it happens</li><li>What can result from an economic collapse</li><li>Ideas for preparation"</li></ol>(CONTINUED <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/439656-arbitrary-vote/11018-economic-fragility-underestimated-collapse-may-be-imminent">HERE</a>)<br /><p> </p>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-87832131308927520722009-07-12T08:50:00.004-05:002009-07-24T20:52:07.893-05:00"We're not out of the woods – G8 leaders fear double dip slump," By Larry Elliott and Patrick Wintour, Guardian.co.uk, July 8, 2009"The leaders of the west's most powerful countries expressed fears tonight of a double-dip recession and stressed the continued need for emergency measures to boost growth until recovery from the worst post-war global recession was assured."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/08/g8-recession-plan-global-economy">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-50517423192223979322009-07-09T16:14:00.004-05:002009-07-09T16:25:30.220-05:00"California in not such a golden state," By Robert Shrimsley, Financial Times (London), July 9, 2009"The scale of California's debt crisis - the state is having to issue IOUs as it grapples with a $26bn deficit - has raised some uncomfortable questions for the US.<p>Is California too big to fail? If so, might the federal government be forced to nationalise it? There are those who believe California should be allowed to fail as a warning to the others. Many ordinary voters are unhappy at bailing out wealthy Californians who enjoyed a luxury lifestyle of sun and sand while their state was sinking."</p><p>(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3e96720-6c20-11de-9320-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=Late_headline2/NL/USJul2009/Vanilla_calbgt/0/&nclick_check=1">HERE</a>)</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">BLOG COMMENT: </span>For someone who has taught state politics for 30 years, this article is surealistic. Can I really be reading this in a mainstream publication? Am I dreaming? No, tis not a dream, rather it is Peak Oil reality. We are beginning to wake up from a dream, the Age of Oil.<br /></p>Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1702832906954132364.post-71596867493610925272009-07-07T09:19:00.004-05:002009-07-07T10:33:48.292-05:00The Wealthy World at its "Oil Break Point," By Peter Tertzakian, The Calgary Herald, July 6, 2009"Another quarter gone by. That makes three since the foundations blew out from underneath Lehman Brothers and six quarters since the start of the U.S. recession at the end of 2007. It seems like the negativity is lasting an eternity, and in terms of economic cycles it is. Since the Great Depression, which lasted 14 quarters, the longest recession has been five quarters long, 1981 to 1982. So, at six quarters and counting, the new tag line for our current malaise, 'The Great Recession,' seems appropriate."<br /><br />(CONTINUED <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Wealthy+World+break+point/1758122/story.html">HERE</a>)Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.com0