Peak Oil Preparation: A Power Blackout in Winter, A Comment by R.C., The Oil Drum, May 7, 2009

"I recently experienced one of the most educational periods of my life, as well as one of the more traumatic.

About 5 months ago in the U.S., in the state of Kentucky, we experienced the worst ice storm in our history. It was almost mythic in its destruction, destroying trees, power lines and even structures in an hour after hour ice pile-up which moved over the state like a glacier descending from the sky.

I was made homeless, with the power to my home destroyed, the electric meter sheared from the wiring of the house, and the water frozen and bursted on the north side of the home. The house still sits dark and cold. I was forced to relocate to an apartment some 22 miles away. I left the house at 2AM, using a garbage bag and a flashlight to round up some emergency supplies. When I left the house was 22 degrees Fahrenheit (-9.4 Celsius) inside with water frozen in the kitchen sink and water pipes bursted under the home.

The most important lesson I learned was this: If you are not prepared before the event, you cannot prepare for it during the event. The damage of cold and ice occurs very fast. By the time I realized I could not endure in the extreme cold, saving the house from damage was hopeless. I had stayed under mountains of blankets and wearing a parka and ski sweater and jackets, going to my car every 6 hours or so in an attempt to warm up, but I could not cook food, had no heat and no light, so could not bath or even shave (except for "dry shaving" with a disposable razor, with no way to wash my face afterward) By the time I left the home I was dehydrated, hungry, grungy and cold to the point of it being dangerous.

I know one man who stayed with his wife in his home until his feet began to turn black. He almost lost the feet, and the doctor told him once he made it to the emergency room that he had almost lost his life.

The U.K., like the U.S. has an aging demographic, many with health issues such as high blood pressure, bad circulation, diabetes and heart conditions. A collapse in natural gas/electric production that destroys the ability to heat homes scares me FAR more than any gasoline shortage ever could. The great Kentucky ice storm only proved to me what I had already known, but had not prepared for.

The fact is, the U.S. and U.K. would see great suffering and causalities in an emergency involving major loss of home heating and it would occur VERY quickly, almost before the emergency contingency plans could even be put into play.

If we do not prepare now, we cannot prepare when it happens, it will simply be too late."

(This comment and others are found HERE).

Blog Comment:

Emergency planning for a power blackout is wise.

According to Railton Frith and Paul H. Gilbert (U.S. National Research Council scientist testifying before the U.S. Congress), power failures CURRENTLY could paralyze a nation for weeks or months. When a widespread power failure occurs, it is difficult to get power working again, as much equipment depends on electric power. For example, diesel and gasoline are pumped by electric motors.

In an era of multiple crises and resource constraints, power failures will last longer and then become permanent. When power failures occur in winter, millions of people in the U.S., Canada, and Europe will die of exposure. There are not enough shelters for entire populations, and shelters will lack heat, adequate food and water, and sanitation. (5) Water purification and water distribution systems will fail, leaving millions of metropolitan residents without water. (6) Waste water treatment systems will fail, resulting in untreated sewage that will contaminate the drinking water for millions of residents who consume river water downstream. (7) Transportation and communications failures will cripple federal, state and local governments — leaving and residents without emergency services, emergency shelters, police and fire protection, water supplies, and sanitation etc. (8) Mechanized farming will cease, and harvested crops won’t be transported more than a few miles. (9) Fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides won’t be produced. (10) Due to limited farm acreage near cities (much of it destroyed by suburbanization), most cities and towns will be unable to support their populations with sufficient food from local farming (Paul Chefurka). (11) Homes will lack heating and air conditioning. Even if homes are retrofitted with wood stoves, local biomass is insufficient to provide for home heating, and it will not be possible to cut, split, and move wood in sufficient quantities.

A Response to the IEA Forecast of a Peak in 2020

Independent studies conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008 to 2010)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)


Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page Peak Oil report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed.

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a more sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

Peak Oil Survival: Choosing Reality or Illusion

I observed much about Peak Oil while traveling in Spain for the month of October, mostly driving: Madrid, Alicante, Granada, Cordoba, Sevilla, Merida, Barcelona, Aranjuez, and Segovia. I talked with taxi drivers, hotel workers and owners, shop workers and owners, tourists from all over the world, and a business owner relative who knows the economy of Spain, Europe, and the world well. I learned much as I traveled, including much reading of the "International Herald Tribune," "El Pais," "Times of London," "Financial Times," and the "Wall Street Journal," as well as viewing CNBC, CNN, and the local TV news.

Building construction in Spain has almost ceased and construction cranes stand idle. Capital is scarce. No amount of government priming will change that. Few new solar panels and wind turbines will be added to the thousands in use. Commercial centers, factories, and offices are all slowing down and many will close in the months ahead. Spain will soon have spare electric power. The large number of tourists on the streets is a hold over from the pre-recession economy. Tourism is declining rapidly. This is like much of Europe and the U.S.

Global oil production has been plateaued since early 2005. So, the oil flow rate has been much the same, but now more oil is consumed by China, India, and the oil producing nations. Europe, the U.S., Japan, Australia, etc. are consuming less. Peak Oil is here, regardless of the most recent U.S. Energy Information Agency data which show some possible recent minor increase. When oil production is the same after 4 years of trying hard to increase it, we are at Peak Oil.

Very soon oil production will begin to decline, probably about right now (2012 at the latest, according to independent studies). Unless they are transported to the Middle East, China, or India, those idled construction cranes in the U.S. and Europe will remain idle.

Despite a media clamor in Spain for more wind and solar investment, it won't happen. Soon all of the capital will go to subsidizing unemployment (currently at about 15% and rising rapidly) and to public works in order to employ people. The manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines produces few jobs. As soon as oil production begins to decline, global recession will devastate the global economy and capital and government revenues will evaporate.

We need to examine solar and wind power. But no one has a real plan on how solar/wind will power tractors and combines, transport food and goods, or fertilize crops. Showing a photo of an electric powered tractor, truck, or train or saying we can do it is not a plan. What would the infrastructure for the electric economy look like? Where would the trillions of Euros in capital come from? How can governments pay for it when people are out of work and governments have little revenue? Where will the oil come from to manufacture, transport, and maintain the electric economy? Where will people get the money to buy electric vehicles when they are out of work and have little trade in value on their gasoline/diesel powered cars?

How can we maintain the power grid without diesel for trucks? When the highways fail from a lack of maintenance, there won't be replacement parts for the power grid, wind turbines, and solar panels. As I cruised the highways of Spain, I saw some huge transformers and gigantic wind turbine blades being transported by trucks. Everything depends on trucks moving on the highways. Most food, goods, and people in Europe move by trucks, not trains. But like the construction cranes, those trucks will be idle one day -- and there goes food distribution, the power grid and everything. Without electric power, almost nothing mechanical or modern functions -- lights, sanitation, water purification and distribution, refrigeration, heating and air conditioning, pumping of diesel and gasoline, building systems, elevators, communications, emergency services, etc. Without the power grid, wind turbines and solar panels are mostly useless. In the future, wind turbines and solar panels will sit idle, monuments to misdirected policies that wasted fossil energy to manufacture, transport and maintain devices to produce electric power, when we need liquid fuels. The same can be said for nuclear power.

Shall we plan and prepare for the real future: a world without oil and without electric power. Or, shall we continue to avoid reality, dream about what will never happen, and waste time, effort, and capital on illusions?