Wednesday, May 27, 2009

World Oil Production Forecast - Update May 2009, by Tony Ericksen, The Oil Drum, May 19, 2009

"World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.82 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 71 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline slowly to about December 2010 as OPEC production increases while non-OPEC production decreases. After 2010 the resulting annual production decline rate increases to 3.4% as OPEC production is unable to offset cumulative non-OPEC declines.


There are a number of interesting comments, especially from this comment to the end of the comments.

Blog Comments:

Tony Ericksen provides an excellent forecast for future oil production. But he concludes that "The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources."

But the development of renewables uses up precious fossil energy and yields electric power, which is not needed. We need liquid fuels for food production and transportation. When transportation fails the power grid will fail from lack of maintenance (that depends on the highways). Solar and wind gadgets will stand idle as monuments to ignorance. The problems with renewables are documented here.

The advice should be that governments, the media, business, and individuals need to focus on preparing for Peak Oil impacts and surviving Peak Oil.

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