Saturday, November 28, 2009

Peak Oil: "World Oil Production Forecast" by Tony Eriksen (Ace), posted on "The Oil Drum," November 23, 2009

Tony Eriksen's "World Oil Production Forecast" represents the most accurate forecast of world oil production, as it is based on "an aggregation of individual forecasts from over 80 countries including over 300 major oil projects."See Wikepedia for an explanation of this method.

"World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart." [click on chart to enlarge]


Blog comment: As noted on this blog previously, Because oil is used to produce oil, we should focus on net oil production, which is what we have left after oil is consumed to extract, refine, and deliver oil products to market. The rate of decline in net oil production is much steeper than for all oil produced, as shown in Murphy's Figure 3.