Saturday, November 28, 2009

Peak Oil: "World Oil Production Forecast" by Tony Eriksen (Ace), posted on "The Oil Drum," November 23, 2009

Tony Eriksen's "World Oil Production Forecast" represents the most accurate forecast of world oil production, as it is based on "an aggregation of individual forecasts from over 80 countries including over 300 major oil projects."See Wikepedia for an explanation of this method.

"World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart." [click on chart to enlarge]



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Blog comment: As noted on this blog previously, Because oil is used to produce oil, we should focus on net oil production, which is what we have left after oil is consumed to extract, refine, and deliver oil products to market. The rate of decline in net oil production is much steeper than for all oil produced, as shown in Murphy's Figure 3.

9 comments:

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nice post!keep posting

香蕉哥哥 said...

nice job! waiting for your new artical. ........................................

marry said...

Blogs are so informative where we get lots of information on any topic. Nice job keep it up!!
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Will Webbyte said...

Here's a thought. We know how to make oil now. How about exploring solar energy to make oil?

Will Webbyte said...

Here's a thought. We know how to make oil now. How about exploring solar energy to make oil?

Sam Streubel said...

I'm sure the U.S. Energy Dept. is well aware of Mr. Eriksen's predictions. However, the motto of our government has always been "Never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." So I imagine this impending debacle will be largely ignored, much like the financial shenanigans of Wall Street, until it reaches crisis proportions.

Thesolar said...

Learning to make solar energy and specifically, home solar panels is not necessarily an easy task and a lot of people might not really know where to start. That being said, with the help of solar energy plans, even consumers with minimal DIY experience can build solar energy and save themselves thousands every year. Build Solar panel

neil2445 said...

Hiya Cliff - long time no-see. Not getting any comments? Haha - voices in the wilderness, we are. I've made a blog too -
http://conflictpeakoil.blogspot.com/
Perfect storm on the horizon, mate. And everyone's eating king-sized buckets of fries and watching crap on the TV.

Sergio I. Solórzano said...

Hello Cliff, I'm from Mexico City, are you building peak oil aware community? I want to relocate and Xico, or Coatepec were options for me, If you get this could you answer me at sisd at mail dot com thanks. I have been taking some permaculture courses.