Sunday, December 21, 2008

From The Oil Drum: Peak Oil in 2008

Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," (page 1) concludes that global Peak Oil production occurred in 2008.

Global crude oil production has been on a plateau since 2004. Because oil producers were producing at maximum effort to take advantage of high oil prices, this is a clear indication of Peak Oil.

Accordingly, oil production will now begin to decline terminally.

Within a year, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts would exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices higher.

There is discussion of Koppelaar's research at The Oil Drum.

6 comments:

thedoomletter said...

Dr. Wirth says:

"Within a year, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts would exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices higher."

I am a little less convinced of anything regarding directions in oil prices given that the global economy has stagnated and commodity prices have collapsed. If anything happens, my guess is skyrocketing oil prices would be connected to hyperinflation of the dollar because of huge outlays by government and the federal reserve.

I don't think there will be a recovery of demand in the oil market in 2009, because so many parts of the economy that were expanding their consumption of oil have collapsed.

IMO, oil production my have hit its high water mark over the summer, but there is a lot of play in the market right now on the demand side of the equation that wasn't apparent 6-9 months ago.

we are still screwed though, no doubt about that.

-mike

«—U®Anu§—» said...

I'll be working up some new material after Christmas. So far as I can see, I'm the only person on blogs talking about Tesla's overunity device, the MEG. This technology is the silver bullet the world is looking for, and the big story of the next 10,000 years. If you doubt that and never heard of it, you're in the good company of 99.9% of the world. My study covers 46 years and only this year did I come to understand it's the only true energy technology.

I've been studying this website the last 3 years and am yet to read everything on it. He's replicated Tesla's apparatus and patented a version of it. Anything that needs power can use this technology; indeed, it redesigns everything.

It's taken me thousands of hours of reading to understand this, and I still don't know how to build an MEG. There are no schematics available in the public domain. Our classified military uses the technology to build the most powerful weapons ever made, and it's more than a suppressed technology, it's classified.

This best thing ever invented, best thing in the world, deserves your perusal.

Sebastian Ronin said...

We are on the plateau. When dealing with the historical context that is, a few years this way or that way is really quite irrelevant. What a fascinating time to be alive. BTW, thanks for dropping by my blog the other day.

Anonymous said...

I think that one credit is missing and that is the work from Global Energy Systems at Uppsala University. In his Ph.D. thesis Fredrik Robelius gave a best and worst case scenario and as can be seen it looks as the world I following the worst case scenario.

http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/sv/publications/giant-oil-fields-the-highway-to-oil-giant-oil-fields-and-their-importance-for-future-oi

http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625

Kjell Aleklett
aleklett.wordpress.com

Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. said...

Hi Professor Kjell Aleklett,

I thank you, your colleagues, and Dr. Frerik Robelius for your fine work on Peak Oil forecasting. I cite Robelius's work in my Peak Oil Report, but missed him in making up this list. Thanks for the correction and my apologies to Dr. Robelius.

Best regards,

Cliff Wirth

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