Saturday, December 20, 2008

A Response to the IEA Forecast of a Peak in 2020

Independent studies conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008 to 2010)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)


Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page Peak Oil report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed.

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a more sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hahah you believe in this nonsense? LOL

If you were paying attention during the election you would know that the USA has millions of times more oil than the Arab countries combined and that we have yet to use 1/10 th of 1 % of it.

If we get Sarah Palin for pres in '12 our oil troubles are over.

DRILL BABY DRILL!

Anonymous said...

I just read more of your article: I am appalled that you left gorgeous NH for that cesspool Mexico. What can I say, Im speechless. NH is the best place to live 6th year running. I know I live there.

You can thank the 80 years of GOP rule for that.

Of course now that Dimmicrats are in power, we are in a deficit and all hell has broken loose with scams like RGGI and 35 new taxes.. What a shame. They are ruining NH. But it's still better than Mexico!!!!!!!!!

florin604 said...

A+

Matthijs Coersen said...

Hi Clifford,

This month in the Oilwatch monthly december edition from the ASPO Netherlands, Rembrandt Koppelaar concludes that Peakoil has happened as of 2008. Declining investments in new oil fields will result in a constrained supply. CERA concluded that this will result in 5 million barrels per day less production. The maximum available supply in 2015 wont be 88 million barrels but 83 million barrels.

Greetings,
Matthijs Coersen

André Sautou said...

I believe you are probably right. I have come to the same conclusions.

Notice that the IEA is ambiguous, as they base their analysis on an unsustainable reference scenario.

Regards.

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