"The Stonewalling of Peak Oil," By Dr. Robert Hirsch, ASPO-USA, September 7, 2009

Dr. Robert L. Hirsch is the lead author of a seminal report, "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management," written for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) and released in early 2005.

"When the report was done, management at NETL really didn’t know what to do with it because it was so shocking and the implications were so significant. Finally, the NETL director decided that she would sign off on it because she was retiring and couldn’t be hurt, or so I was told. The report didn’t get widely publicized. It somehow was picked up by a high school someplace in California; eventually NETL put it on their website. The problem for people at NETL—and these are really good people—was that they were under a good deal of pressure to not be the bearers of bad news -- pressure from people in the hierarchy of the DOE. This was true in both Republican and Democratic administrations. There is, I think, ample evidence, and some people in DOE have gone so far as to say it specifically, that people in the hierarchy of DOE, under both administrations, understood that there was a problem and suppressed work in the area. Under President Bush, we were not only able to do the first study but also a follow-on study that looked at mitigation economics. After that, visibility apparently got so high that NETL was told to stop any further work on peak oil.

Yes, that was terrible. And it was strictly politics and political appointees—I have no idea how far up in either administration (the current one and previous one) these issues went or now go. People in the Clinton administration had talked about peak oil, including President Clinton and Vice President Gore, and the same thing is true in the Bush administration, and the same is true, to the best of my knowledge, in the Obama administration.

The peak oil story is definitely a bad news story. There’s just no way to sugar-coat it, other than maybe to do what I’ve done on occasion and that is to say that by 2050 we’ll have it right and we will have come through the peak oil recession—quite probably a very deep recession. At some point we’ll come out of this because we’re human beings, and we just don’t give up. And I have faith in people ultimately. But it’s a bad news story and anybody’s who’s going to stand up and talk about the bad news story and is in a position of responsibility in the government needs to then follow immediately and say “here’s what we’re going to do about it,” and no one seems prepared to do that.

Peak oil is a bigger issue than health care, than federal budget deficits, and so forth. We’re talking about something that, to take a middle of the road position—not the Armageddon extreme and not the la-la optimism of some people—is going to be extremely damaging to the U.S. and world economies for a very long period of time. There are no quick fixes."

(VIEW FULL INTERVIEW)

Blog Comment: Dr. Hirsch says that "there’s just no way to sugar-coat [Peak Oil]," but that is what he does. There is no plan or technology for replacing oil, nor is there time or capital to do so. After listening to his speeches, it is clear that his beliefs in America, technology, and the human will distort his scientific analysis. Denial is way of avoiding the horror of the reality ahead.

"Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell," Seeking Alpha, August 14, 2009

"We have to send a tip of the hat, to ultra popular finance blogger at Zerohedge.com for alerting us to the huge number of insiders who are selling off stock in their companies."

(VIEW FULL ARTICLE)

Blog Comment: Many Wall Streeters know about Peak Oil. Neil King Jr. at "The Wall Street Journal" gave a talk last year at the annual ASPO conference. Two years ago I sent him my Peak Oil impacts report. He wrote back and said he would read it. I wrote back and suggested that he forward the report to his editors, as it would make writing about Peak Oil easier for him. I have posted my Peak Oil impacts report in comments on financial blogs, including those at "The Wall Street Journal" and "Financial Times," and it has been posted on Engerybulletin.net. Bart Anderson at Engergybulletin.net informed me that this article on Peak Oil and the economy had 3,783 unique page views. Another article on Peak Oil and the economy was likely as popular and has been posed on many blogs. We can conclude that many insiders know about Peak Oil.

"Obama says many months before U.S. exits recession," Reuters, August 1, 2009

"President Barack Obama warned on Saturday it would take "many more months" for the United States to get out of recession even after GDP figures showed the economy shrank only modestly in the second quarter."

(CONTINUED HERE)

"Some Unemployed are Giving Up," By Liz Wolgemuth, U.S. News & World Report, July 22, 2009

"In some U.S. states, nearly half of the job

seekers who have stopped looking for work have done so because they simply don't believe they'll find anything. Indeed, the number of discouraged workers nationwide has more than doubled in the past year. This trend won't be reflected in the widely publicized unemployment rate, as discouraged workers aren't included among the unemployed. Still, in states as diverse as Mississippi, South Dakota, and New York, the span of this often invisible slice of workers signals a population losing its hope."

(CONTINUED HERE)

"Hundreds of Thousands of Workers Will Lose Unemployment Benefits Soon," By Marie Coco, Washington Post Writer's Group, July 10, 2009

"When a virulent disease is ravaging you like a cancer, you don't want a cacophony of voices promoting different or contradictory cures. Yet that is what we're starting to hear about the economic crisis, not only from a politically divided -- and pretty scared -- capital, but from within the Obama administration itself. In just the past few days, Vice President Joe Biden has said the young administration misread the depth of the recession -- an honest account, since most private economists did as well. Laura Tyson, an outside economic adviser to the White House, said it's wise to start preparing another stimulus package."

(CONTINUED HERE)

"The State of Homelessness in the U.S.," By M.J. Stephey, TimeCNN, July 13, 2009

"There are few economic indicators as grim as homelessness, as the Department of Department of Housing and Urban Development demonstrates in its 4th annual report on the topic, which found that some 1.6 million Americans stayed at homeless shelters from October 2007 to September 2008. The Department also noticed some troubling trends: more families seeking shelter — particularly in rural and suburban areas — and more people going to shelters from stable living arrangements (instead of jails, institutional settings or the military)."

(CONTINUED HERE)

"Economic Fragility Underestimated - Collapse May Be Imminent ," By Arbitrary Vote, Seeking Alpha, July 2, 2009

"The mainstream media and government are communicating that the economy is on a positive track toward recovery while downplaying the likelihood of another economic catastrophe similar or worse than that experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009. In actuality, there is a significant chance that the U.S. will experience a severe economic collapse, beyond what has already been experienced, either this year or within the next few years. If there is a perceived, sustainable economic rebound before this happens, do not be fooled - the underlying economic problems still exist and will likely eventually surface in economic collapse.

This following analysis further explores this warning by describing:

1. The 4 key reasons an economic collapse is likely imminent
2. Why these 4 reasons make the economy vulnerable
3. Warning signs and triggers to monitor to foresee a collapse before it happens
4. What can result from an economic collapse
5. Ideas for preparation"

(CONTINUED HERE)

"We're not out of the woods – G8 leaders fear double dip slump," By Larry Elliott and Patrick Wintour, Guardian.co.uk, July 8, 2009

"The leaders of the west's most powerful countries expressed fears tonight of a double-dip recession and stressed the continued need for emergency measures to boost growth until recovery from the worst post-war global recession was assured."

(CONTINUED HERE)

The Wealthy World at its "Oil Break Point," By Peter Tertzakian, The Calgary Herald, July 6, 2009

"Another quarter gone by. That makes three since the foundations blew out from underneath Lehman Brothers and six quarters since the start of the U.S. recession at the end of 2007. It seems like the negativity is lasting an eternity, and in terms of economic cycles it is. Since the Great Depression, which lasted 14 quarters, the longest recession has been five quarters long, 1981 to 1982. So, at six quarters and counting, the new tag line for our current malaise, 'The Great Recession,' seems appropriate."

(CONTINUED HERE)

"States set to ring in Independence Day sans budget," By Andrew Welsh-Huggins, Associated Press, July 3, 2009

"Several states are facing the prospect of government shutdowns and program cuts as they enter the first weekend of the fiscal year and July Fourth holiday without a budget in place.

'This downturn, even more so than previous downturns, really is affecting every state right now,' said Brian Sigritz, a staff associate with the National Association of State Budget Officers.

'Numerous things look worse than some past recessions,' said Bert Waisanen, a fiscal analyst with the Denver-based National Conference of State Legislatures. 'The housing market is worse. Industrial production is worse. Wages are nearly worse.'

'The sputtering economy has created an across-the-board drop in tax collections. Taxes ranging from sales to personal income to property are all down,' Sigritz said."

(CONTINUED HERE)

Blog Comment: Highway maintenance is the Achilles's heel for modern society. Without expensive and energy intensive maintenance, the highways will fail from bridge collapes, washouts from a lack of culvert maintenance, and land slides. The power grid depends on the highways for replacements of huge transformers and pylons. Each winter, ice storms damage the power grid, and thousands of power company crews on trucks repair the damage. State governments maintain the highways. The Peak Oil economic depression is just beginning to cut into state revenues. As unemployment increases, states will have less revenues from sales and income taxes. As oil supplies dwindle, the price of diesel and highway maintenance will increase. Eventually states will not have enough resources to subsidize home heating and highway maintenance. Without the highways and power grid, virtually nothing will come in from "the outside." The federal government will try come to the rescue, but 70% of federal revenues come from individual income taxes.

"World hunger reaches the 1 billion people mark," By Alessandra Rizzo, Associated Press, June 19, 2009

"One in six people in the world — or more than 1 billion — is now hungry, a historic high due largely to the global economic crisis and stubbornly high food prices, a U.N. agency said Friday.

Compared with last year, there are 100 million more people who are hungry, meaning they receive fewer than 1,800 calories a day, the Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report." (CONTINUED HERE).

Peak Oil: "Slate's Shoot the Recession Project," Slate Magazine, Hundreds of Photos Posted on Flickr, March 30, 2009

"Slate is turning to our readers and to the Flickr community to find out—we want to know what the recession looks like to you. Please submit photos to this group that capture our perilous economic moment. "

See photos HERE, and look on the site for newly added photos. Periodically, Slate will publish a selection of striking photos from the group in a slide show on Slate."

Peak Oil: "Scenes from the recession," By Alan Taylor, The Boston Globe, March 18, 2009

"The state of our global economy: foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, layoffs, abandoned projects, and the people and industries caught in the middle. It can be difficult to capture financial pressures in photographs, but here a few recent glimpses into some of the places and lives affected by what some are calling the 'Great Recession'." (35 photos)

(Continued here).

Peak Oil: "Global recession worst since Great Depression, IMF says," By Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, April 22, 2009

"WASHINGTON – The global economy is expected to lurch into reverse this year for the first time since World War II with appalling consequences for nations large and small — trillions of dollars in lost business, millions of people thrust into hunger and homelessness and crime on the rise.

And the pain won't stop this year, the International Monetary Fund declared Wednesday, for what it said was "by far the deepest global recession since the Great Depression." To cushion the blow and head off further damage next year, the IMF is calling for more stimulus projects from the word's governments, including major spending for public works projects."

(Continued here).

Peak Oil Recession: "IMF sees long and severe slowdown," BBC News, April 16, 2009

"The current global recession is likely to be 'unusually long and severe, and the recovery sluggish,' the International Monetary Fund has warned."

"Slowdowns linked with financial crises tend to be severe, while synchronised slowdowns last longer, it said.

The current global crisis has also been strongly felt in emerging economies, it said in its World Economic Outlook.

The global links between financial sectors have intensified the speed the downturn has spread across the world.

With the financial crisis intensifying, more countries are coming to the IMF for help and its supply of funds to loan may run out."

But...................no mention of oil production or Peak Oil.

(Article and video)

The Great (Peak Oil) Recession, Who's to Blame, and How People Adjust, TIME/CNN, April 17, 2009

Here you find lots on: who is to blame for the financial crisis; how some people in the U.S. are adjusting to the "Great Recession;" photos of failed retail stores; and a poll on attitudes; and how people are handling the "recession."

But there is not a photo display of how this impacts poor Americans or those in the economically less developed countries.

Missing on the blame list are those who issued fairy tales about future oil production and future oil prices -- the Energy Information Agency (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Cambridge Energy Research Associates, and private and national oil companies.

There is no mention of Peak Oil or high oil prices. No mention that last year economists quoted in "The Wall Street Journal" said that if oil goes above $125 per barrel we will go into recession. No mention that Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO Ireland, ASPO International, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, the U.S. General Accountability Office, the Hirsch report, Jim Puplava, James Kunstler, Chris Shaw, Gail the Actuary, Matt Savinar, Peter Goodchild, Kathy McMahon, me, and many others warned about a looming Peak Oil recession. And no mention that many voices now warn that the recession will grow into an ever worsening economic depression.

Dr. Colin Campbell Predicted the Peak Oil Credit Crunch in 2005

Dr. Colin Campbell Predicted the Peak Oil Credit Crunch in 2005.

Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari (deceased), a former senior analyst for the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) of Tehran, Iran warned of similar economic impacts in 2006.

Peak Oil Planning: The G20 Global Plan for Economic Recovery Is an Illusion

In 2004, geologist Colin Campbell (retired -- Texaco, British Petroleum, Amoco) cautioned, "Throughout history, people have had difficulty in distinguishing reality from illusion. Reality is what happens, whereas illusion is what we would like to happen. Wishful thinking is a well-worn expression. Momentum is still another element: we tend to assume that things keep moving in the same direction. The world now faces a discontinuity of historic proportions, as nature shows her hand by imposing a new energy reality. There are vested interests on all sides hoping somehow to evade the iron grip of oil depletion, or at least to put it off until after the next election or until they can develop some strategy for their personal or corporate survival. As the moment of truth approaches, so does the heat, the deceptions, the half-truth and the flat lies." (Reality and Illusion source)

The 2009 G20 global recovery plan is an illusion, and ASPO President Kjell Aleklett explains why in detail:

"Not enough oil for the G20 package," originally published in the Swedish newspaper "Uppsala Nya Tidning," April 4, 2009 and translated into English on his blog here.

The Peak Oil Economic Depression Has Arrived

A headline from Chicagotribune.com states: "Jobless rate bolts to 8.1 percent, 651K jobs lost in February."

"The net loss of 651,000 jobs in February came after even deeper payroll reductions in the prior two months, according to revised figures. The economy lost 681,000 jobs in December and another 655,000 in January," based on U.S. Department of Labor statistics."

But the real unemployment rate is now more like 12 or 13 percent, according to analyst Lee Adler, writing in "The Wall Street Examiner." Adler concludes that, "today’s deterioration is at least as rapid, and probably more rapid, than the beginning of the Great Depression."

Dow Jones concludes that today's stock market decline mimics the Great Depression.

Thus, both increasing unemployment and declining stock values indicate that we are entering an economic depression similar to the Great Depression.

Although it is difficult to determine how much of this economic depression is caused by Peak Oil impacts and how much stems from mismanagement of the economy as well as from business and government corruption, ASPO-Ireland explains that Peak Oil plays a major role.

But the current economic depression is permanent, due to declining global oil production, according to a recent post on EnergyBulletin.net.

We are entering the "Greatest Depression."

In the Great Depression of the 1930s, government programs and the build up for World War II stimulated the economy. The East Texas oil boom powered the factories, highways, trucks, tractors, trains, transportation, and infrastructure to make it possible.

Now, the problem is declining oil production, and there is no energy boom to help us pull ourselves up by the bootstraps.

There is no plan for developing energy alternatives that will power trucks, trains, ships, tractors, and combines, nor is there time or capital to develop alternatives. Capital is scarce due to declining oil production. Chris Shaw explains that energy is the source of capital, and hence, capital declines as oil production drops.

A review of government and scientific studies indicates that regardless of the time or capital available, no alternatives will begin to make up for declining global oil production.

Whatever alternative energy we attempt to develop will consume valuable oil (mining, manufacturing, and transportation) and not deliver the liquid fuels that we need. Chris Shaw call this the "quicksand effect."

The Congress and president will be at a loss of how to manage this ever-worsening economic collapse. They would be wise to commission the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to provide the nation with advice. Chaos will result from the advice of contradictory interest groups, organizations, bloggers, and individuals. The NAS is the most credible source for such advice. The NAS and other scientific sources have already undertaken the basic research needed for a policy study to advise the nation. The NAS could provide an energy policy study within a year and could then provide advice on a continuing basis.

The best advice for individuals and organization is to prepare for Peak Oil impacts. No federal or state agencies are studying Peak Oil impacts and contingency planning. A few local governments and organizations are beginning to make plans.

This is what we must plan for. With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water distribution systems, waster water treatment, and automated building systems.

Peak Oil Preparation: Dow Jones decline rate mimics Great Depression

By Dawn Kawamoto, March 2, 2009

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling below the psychological watermark of 7,000 on Monday, investors may be wondering how it all stacks up against the stock market crash of the Great Depression.

It's not looking good. (continued here)