To better plan for Peak Oil impacts, we must understand the how we arrived at the current economic downturn and then forecast what lies ahead for 2009 and the future.
Over the next two days, I will post several articles and comments which explain the current economy and make forecasts for 2009 and the years ahead. To move toward an objective analysis, I will provide a variety of views on the economy.
Readers are welcome to make comments or email me their own assessment which I will post.
Subsequently, I will add a post that relates the economic assessments to oil production forecasts. This analysis will provide a base for making recommendations about planning for Peak Oil impacts.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
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1 comment:
I think that the real economy will continue to take its lumps in 2009. Here are my best guesses:
Employment:
Lucky = 10% in December 09
Unlucky = 13-15% in December 09
Equities:
S&P and Dow will be plus or minus 10% of their value now in December 09.
Commodities:
Trend up after the first half of the year, except for gold and oil.
Oil:
I think it will dip below $30 off and on for the next few months but could finish the year much higher, depending on demand forecasts and stockpiles.
Gold:
Totally tied inversely to the dollar. If inflation starts in 09, it will take off. If not, it might get back up to $1k.
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